SPC MD 1297

MD 1297 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SRN ND…NRN SD…EXTREME WRN MN

MD 1297 Image


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1297
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN ND...NRN SD...EXTREME WRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 161727Z - 161930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN INCREASE IN STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED AND A WATCH IS LIKELY PRIOR
TO 19Z.

DISCUSSION...A SMALL BOWING COMPLEX OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS IN
PROGRESS ACROSS CENTRAL ND AT 1725Z...WHERE WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY /500 J/KG/...LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...AND ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH A PRONOUNCED MCV WERE CONTRIBUTING TO OBSERVED STORM
INTENSITY. AN ISOLATED STRONG/OCCASIONALLY SEVERE STORM WAS ALSO
LOCATED OVER DEWEY COUNTY SD...ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF ASCENT
WITH THE ND MCV.

DESPITE AREAS OF MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS...DIURNAL HEATING AND LOWER
60S SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY BY MID AFTERNOON. WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 30-35 KTS
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40-45 KTS
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON NEAR A SURFACE BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE
WARM FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ND AND FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN SD.  STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL THREAT AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. WITH TIME...UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS
IS LIKELY WITH A MORE CONCENTRATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED AND A WATCH IS LIKELY PRIOR TO
19Z.

..BUNTING/HART.. 07/16/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON   44430019 44780102 45490147 46150165 46680168 47040134
            47140118 47250054 47229989 47189835 47149720 46809656
            45669613 45099612 44559653 44489853 44430019 

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Storm Prediction Center
SPC MD 1297
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